Xcel Energy - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello and welcome to Xcel Energy 2025 Year-end Earnings conference call. My name is Jordan, and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this conference is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the prepared remarks, and questions will only be taken from institutional investors and analysts. Reporters can contact media relations with inquiries, and individual investors and others can reach out to investor relations. I'd now like to turn the call over to your host today, Mr. Roopesh Aggarwal, Vice President, Investor Relations, to begin the conference. Please go ahead, sir.

Roopesh Aggarwal (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Jordan. Good morning and welcome to Xcel Energy's 2025 year-end earnings call. Joining me today are Bob Frenzel, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Brian Van Abel, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we have other members of the management team in the room to answer your questions if needed. This morning we will review our 2025 full-year results and highlights, provide updated 2026 assumptions, and share recent business and regulatory updates. Slides that accompany today's call are available on our website. Some comments during today's call may contain forward-looking information. Significant factors that could cause results to differ from those anticipated are described in our earnings release and SEC filings. Today we will discuss certain metrics that are non-GAAP measures. Information on the comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations are included in our earnings release.

As a reminder, we recorded a charge of $300 million or $0.38 per share in 2025, reflecting the settlement in principle reached with plaintiffs in the Marshall Wildfire. As a result, our GAAP earnings for 2025 were $3.42 per share, while our ongoing earnings, which exclude this non-recurring charge, were $3.80 per share. All further discussion on our earnings call will focus on annual ongoing earnings. For more information on this, please see the disclosure in our earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Bob.

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thank you, Rupesh, and good morning, everybody. At Xcel Energy, we continue to deliver on a once-in-a-generation opportunity to meet the increasing demands of our customers as they electrify more parts of their lives, support the economic development of our communities, fuel the rapid growth of AI and data centers, and to continue to lead a clean energy transition in the country. Over the next five years, Xcel Energy expects to invest an excess of $60 billion to modernize and expand the grid, adding advanced transmission and distribution infrastructure, new natural gas and renewable generation, and smart, weather-hardened infrastructure. These upgrades will strengthen sustainability, reliability, and resiliency while keeping our customer bills as low as possible. We've also continued our decades-long track record of producing strong results for our owners.

In 2025, Xcel Energy delivered ongoing earnings of $3.80 per share, marking the 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding our initial ongoing earnings guidance. We achieved that outcome with some of the lowest electric and natural gas bills in the country. This consistency reflects the strength of our strategy, the diversity of our business, and the dedication of our Xcel Energy team who show up every day with safety, reliability, affordability, and sustainability as their top priorities. 2025 showcased what our people are capable of as we reached several important customer and operational milestones. With our disciplined execution and geographic advantage for renewables, we continue to deliver for our customers. Our residential electric customers in Colorado have the lowest share wallet out of all 50 states. An average electric bills in our other states occupy five of the top 11 spots in the country.

Since 2020, residential electric bills in Denver, Minneapolis, have grown far less than inflation and less than common expenses like groceries, gasoline, healthcare, insurance, and housing. When compared to other national electricity providers, these bills have grown 40% and 80% less than other regions. It's a testament to our focus on affordability, our productive regulatory jurisdictions, and importantly, our integrated regulated utility model that allows for long-term asset investment. It's also a testament to our One Xcel Energy Way continuous improvement program that has realized over $1.5 billion in cumulative savings since 2020, while also improving customer and operating outcomes. As a result, when looking at our 5-year average O&M expenses per megawatt-hour, Xcel Energy ranked fourth lowest out of our peer utility companies.

Even with some of the lowest energy bills in the country, we know some of our customers still struggle to make ends meet. In 2025, our energy assistance programs reached nearly 200,000 customers and provided nearly $200 million in funding, our highest ever one-year total. Our focus on reliability, affordability, and customer service was recognized by J.D. Power, who ranked Xcel Energy in the top quartile for the Midwest region and had the second highest score for customer satisfaction. Across our eight states, we continue to build and maintain the critical infrastructure that supports our customers' energy needs. In 2025, we invested nearly $12 billion, our largest one-year total. In September, phase two of our Sherco Solar project started commercial operation, and a third phase will come online in 2026. Once complete, Sherco Solar will be the largest solar facility in the Upper Midwest.

We also completed the conversion of our 1,000-megawatt Harrington coal plant to natural gas, which provides essential energy resiliency and reliability to our customers. And we source and deliver that natural gas for Harrington from the Permian region, and that combination will benefit the local community for years to come. We completed 370 megawatts of wind repowering at our Border and Pleasant Valley facilities in the Upper Midwest and expect $750 million in PTC benefits, which exceeds the investment that we made into these facilities, creating more affordable energy for our customers. We placed our 325-megawatt Rocky Mountain solar project in service this year, our first utility-scale solar farm in Colorado, with many more to come.

We released our updated 2026 to 2030 capital plan, which includes, relative to our previous plan, an additional 7,000 megawatts of company-owned renewables, natural gas generation, and storage across our states to transition our fleet and build for growth. Speaking of enabling growth, over the past 15 years, Xcel Energy has been the leading builder of new transmission line miles in the country. Last spring, we energized our first two segments of the Colorado Power Pathway ahead of schedule, on scope, and under budget, delivering significant value to our Colorado customers. The remaining segments will be energized in 2026 and 2027. Across SPP and MISO in 2025 and 2026, Xcel Energy has been awarded over 760 miles of new 765 kV transmission lines.

This includes a second 765 kV line in SPP that was awarded this week, which gives us line of sight to $1.5 billion in additional investment over our base five-year plan. These will be the first voltage lines of this class in SPP and constitute 20% of the approved new ultra-high voltage transmission in this country, recognizing Xcel Energy's expertise in building and operating transmission networks. We also reached several milestones as we continue to make investments to protect our customers and communities from the threats of extreme weather. In 2025, we rapidly accelerated system investments, including completing eight times as many pole inspections and 25% more pole replacements than the previous year. We installed over 250 Pano AI cameras and weather stations.

In 2025, we received approvals from both Colorado and Texas commissions for our wildfire mitigation and system resiliency plans, as well as published wildfire mitigation plans in each of our other states. Favorable wildfire legislation passed into law in Texas and North Dakota, and we're working on similar frameworks in other states. We continue to improve and refine operational measures to protect our communities, including daily wildfire risk monitoring, proactive customer communications, wildfire safety operations, and in very rare circumstances, Public Safety Power Shutoff capability. Our investments are paying off. During Winter Storm Fern this January, our electric and natural gas operations across NSP, PSCo, and SPS performed exceptionally well. Thanks to rigorous winter readiness, proactive fuel management, and strong coordination across our operations teams, we reliably served customers through periods of high demand, strained gas supply, and challenging weather.

We were able to export our generation length when the system needed us most, providing grid stability and incremental customer benefits. Our operators and field crews executed cold weather procedures flawlessly. We maintained system reliability and managed costs responsibly despite record-setting conditions. While I'm very excited about our achievements in 2025, I want to turn to our strong start to 2026. Today, we are advancing our data center pipeline with a new recently signed ESA with a large data center in the Upper Midwest. This brings Xcel Energy to over 2 GW of new contracted data center capacity. Our goal for 2026 is another 1 GW, bringing our total to 3 GW of contracted data center service by the end of 2026.

While we had growth in the Upper Midwest this winter and forecast so through the end of the decade, we also know that it's critical that we have the right resources to develop new generation infrastructure to deliver on the opportunities in our 20+ GW large load pipeline. Earlier this week, Xcel Energy announced an MOU with longtime partner NextEra Energy to co-develop generation, storage, and interconnections to serve data center projects across our operating companies. By engaging early with leading developers like NextEra, we can better anticipate system needs for new data centers, streamline development timelines, advance innovative grid technologies, and continue to provide the network benefits that data centers bring to all of our customers.

With this agreement, we now expect to have 6 GW of total data center capacity contracted by the end of 2027, with electricity sales and generation investment that will ramp into the 2030s. We will deliver the benefits of two of the best development teams in the industry to meet this moment for our country and our customers. As we've talked about over the past two to three years, execution against our capital and growth plans are critical to our stakeholders. We believe that our scale and our diversity are assets that we can deliver to the benefit of our customers and our regions. We have strategic agreements in place with multiple tier-one EPC firms across our portfolio of renewable natural gas generation projects, as well as transmission, distribution, and natural gas systems.

Earlier this week, we announced a landmark strategic alliance with GE Vernova to support our growing portfolio of wind and natural gas generation, transmission, distribution, and technology projects into the 2030s. This partnership will focus on delivering key benefits to Xcel Energy's customers and stakeholders to enhance certainty of supply, operational flexibility, and cost affordability. Key to the partnership is a mutual commitment to innovation and strategic collaboration. We will work together to explore advancements in areas such as artificial intelligence, grid modernization, and joint research and development programs. As a first step, Xcel Energy is purchasing 5 additional natural gas turbines from GE Vernova, bringing our total to 24 gas CTs on order across our vendors. Additionally, we're integrating GE Vernova into our renewable energy pipeline, bidding several gigawatts of wind projects with GEV turbines in our pending and upcoming RFPs.

Combined with agreements with other equipment engineering construction firms, Xcel Energy has built a scalable, resilient, and flexible engine to ensure delivery of critical system investments. This engine is also enabled us to safe harbor equipment for approximately 20 GW of renewable generation storage, preserving a significant volume of production and investment tax credits for the benefits of our customers. Finally, Xcel Energy's commitment is about much more than energy. The heart of what drives our people is a deep compassion, connection, and commitment to the communities that we serve. That's because these communities are not just customers who receive our energy. It's because our people live in the same neighborhoods, our children attend the same schools, and we attend the same community events. And so it goes without saying that the tragic events across the Twin Cities have weighed heavily on our communities, our customers, and our employees.

We've engaged extensively and proactively with senior federal, state, local, and community officials with the goal to de-escalate and identify a sustainable path forward. I was pleased to sign on to the letter with 60 other Minnesota companies urging for a solution. Alongside other peer companies in the Twin Cities, the Xcel Energy Foundation has committed to help fund the Minneapolis Foundation to support local and small businesses impacted by recent events. I know that our Xcel Energy community will continue to do what we do best, making energy work better for our customers while supporting our teammates and caring for our neighbors. Looking at the broader community engagement in 2025, Xcel Energy initiated 15 economic development projects for our local communities, which are projected to create more than $7 billion in capital investment and nearly 1,400 jobs.

Additionally, nearly 53% of our supply chain spend was local, and we spent nearly $1 billion with small and diverse suppliers. Xcel Energy employees, contractors, and retirees supported by the company's foundation provided over $14 million in over 60,000 volunteer hours to support over 400 local charitable organizations and causes in 2025. And for the 12th year, Xcel Energy was honored as one of the world's most admired companies by Fortune Magazine. We ranked first in social responsibility and placed fourth among the most admired electric and natural gas companies in the country. I continue to be thankful and grateful for each of our employees and partners who shared their time, resources, and talents this year to make energy work better. With that, I'll turn it over to Brian.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Bob, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our financial results, Xcel Energy reported ongoing earnings of $3.80 per share for full year 2025, compared to ongoing earnings of $3.50 per share in 2024. The most significant earnings drivers for the year include the following: higher electric and natural gas revenues due to rate case outcomes, non-fuel riders, and sales growth, partially offset by higher fuel and purchased power expenses. Increased earnings by $1.21 per share, and higher AFUDC increased earnings by $0.27 per share. Offsetting these positive drivers: higher interest charges and common equity financing decreased earnings by $0.46 per share, reflecting funding of our infrastructure investments and financial discipline to maintain a strong balance sheet. Higher depreciation and amortization decreased earnings by $0.28 per share, reflecting our capital investment programs.

Higher O&M expenses decreased earnings by $0.25 per share, and other items combined to decrease earnings by $0.19 per share. Turning to sales, full year weather-adjusted electric sales increased by 2.2%, driven by increased C&I load in SPS and PSCO. For 2026, we continue to expect full year weather-adjusted electric sales to increase 3%. Shifting to expenses, O&M expenses increased $190 million in 2025. Increases are primarily due to accelerated wildfire mitigation costs in Colorado, excess liability insurance costs, and higher benefit costs in late third and fourth quarter 2025, and increased costs from generation maintenance. Moving to regulatory activity. During the fourth quarter in Colorado, we filed both electric and natural gas rate cases. We anticipate commission decisions on each and the implementation of new rates by the end of Q3 2026.

In November, we filed a New Mexico electric rate case and anticipate a commission decision in the second half of 2026. In Wisconsin, we received final approval for our electric and natural gas rate case and implemented new rates in January. As we look to additional investments to our base capital plan, Xcel Energy has 10-12+ GW of additional generation RFPs and transmission opportunities in SPP and MISO. These investments align with our approved resource plans and are critical to ensure we have the energy we need to serve our customers, retire legacy generation, and ensure reliability. These RFPs also help capture expiring production and investment tax credits, which will help keep customer bills low. For the recommended portfolio in Colorado near-term solicitation, we are now expecting the commission to review these resources in multiple tranches through early 2026.

Additional needs under our approved IRP will be subject to RFPs later this year. In December, we issued an RFP in NSP for 4,100 megawatts of renewable generation and storage to be placed in service by 2030. Bids are due in March, and we expect a recommendation filing later this year. In October, we issued an RFP in SPS for 1,500-3,000 megawatts of additional nameplate generation. Bids were received in January, and we expect a report from the independent monitor in late Q2 2026. And finally, as Bob mentioned, in SPP, we were awarded another 765 kV transmission line, which gives line of sight to $1.5 billion of additional investment over our base five-year plan. We also continue to make strong progress on the Smokehouse Creek wildfire claims process. We've resolved 222 of the 287 submitted claims.

We've reached settlements with 79 of the 83 potential claims presented for mediation by parties represented by attorneys. Finally, 22 of 47 complaints have been settled or dismissed. We have updated the low end of our estimated liability to $430 million. We have committed $382 million in settlement agreements, including agreements with the subrogated insurer plaintiffs and the three largest claims by acreage. As a reminder, we have approximately $500 million of insurance coverage. Regarding the Marshall wildfire settlement, final settlement agreements have been executed with the subrogation insurers and nearly all individual plaintiffs. Xcel Energy is aware of three individual plaintiffs out of 4,000+ who have not yet accepted a settlement or otherwise stopped prosecuting their claims. Moving to guidance, we are reaffirming our 2026 EPS guidance range of $4.04-$4.16.

We remain confident in our ability to deliver 6%-8%+ long-term earnings growth and expect to deliver 9% EPS growth on average through 2030. Updates to key assumptions are included in our slides and earnings release. With that, I'll wrap up with a quick summary. Xcel Energy posted strong ongoing 2025 earnings of $3.80 per share, meeting or exceeding ongoing guidance for the 21st consecutive year. We continue to lead a clean energy transition while ensuring safe, clean, and reliable service and keeping customer bills as low as possible. We continue to make progress to realize our $10+ billion pipeline of additional investment opportunities, including a new 765 kV award in SPP this week. We've announced two strategic alliances with industry-leading development and supply chain partners to ensure we have the resources, technology, and capacity to deliver on our capital plan.

We now have signed ESAs for over 2 GW of data centers and remain on track to contract 3 GW total by the end of 2026. In addition, we have updated our plan to contract 6 GW of total data center capacity by the end of 2027. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet and credit metrics, using a balance of debt and equity to fund accretive growth. We are reaffirming our 2026 EPS guidance of $4.04-$4.16 per share. And finally, we remain confident in our ability to deliver 6%-8%+ long-term earnings growth and expect to deliver 9% EPS growth on average through 2030. This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, we will now take questions.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, in order to ask a question, press star one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith. Your line is live.

Brian Rusel (Analyst)

Hi, good morning. It's Brian Russell on for Julien.

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Hey, good morning.

Brian Rusel (Analyst)

Hey, I want to just understand more clearly what the upcoming filings in Colorado for the JTS and how that ties into the large tariff filing. Should we expect, as you sign customers to the large tariff, you'll then submit the capacity need to the commission and issue an independent RFP for each, or will you, I don't know, group them together to make the process more efficient? And then how does it tie into that 6-gigawatt target by 2027?

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, hey, I can start with that answer. And if I didn't answer all the pieces of that question, just feel free to chime in. As we think about it, we're aiming to file that large load tariff in Colorado early in Q2 and work through that regulatory proceeding in Colorado. And once we have that kind of large load tariff and that construct, we'll seek to bring forward large loads within that framework, along with likely a package of generation to serve that large load, really focused on driving customer benefit for all of our current customers. So that's really the timing in terms of getting the large load tariff filing in Colorado. The kind of 6 GW, right, we doubled our data center expected contracted capacity from 3 GW to 6 GW. That 6 GW is contemplated across our system right now.

You saw the one we just signed is focused on Upper Midwest, and I think that's our focus on the Upper Midwest right now. We have some really good opportunities that we're working through. And as we work through the large load tariff filing, not only in Colorado, but Texas, New Mexico, we'll seek for opportunities there too.

Brian Rusel (Analyst)

Okay, great. Then just to follow on that, the $10 billion CapEx pipeline, right, that only includes kind of that low end of the 5,000-14,000 GW range of potential capacity data center-driven needs in Colorado, right? There's notable upside even of the $10 billion.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Yes, that's absolutely a fair characterization as we think about it. And really, that kind of that low end didn't include significant data center growth in Colorado. So as we look to look at data center opportunities there after the large load tariff filing, it would include additional generation to serve those resources.

Brian Rusel (Analyst)

All right, great. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Your line is live.

Diana Niles (VP in Equity Research Product Management)

Hey, good morning. This is Diana Niles on for Jeremy.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Morning.

Diana Niles (VP in Equity Research Product Management)

Hi, good morning. My question is, considering data centers coming online in the coming years, how should we think about that ramp to sales growth reaching 5% across service territories? Do you still expect 3% of this 5% from data centers?

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, thanks for the question. This is Brian. No, we'll update our 5-year sales forecast as we typically do on Q3. That 5% sales CAGR was based on the 3 gigawatts of data center that we had all tied in our last Q3 update. Clearly, we've updated that from 3 gigawatts to 6 gigawatts. But I think there's some of it when you look at the timing, and we expect to have these contracts signed by the end of 2027 and the construction cycle, a lot of those may come in kind of in that 2029 type period. And then it's really about energizing into 2030, in the early 2030s, and about extending our capital investment opportunity, our generation need.

So certainly significant sales growth opportunity, but we think about it more in this later part of this five-year of driving significant growth, significant sales growth, and benefit for our other customers into the 2030s about extent. So it's really about extending our growth opportunities, sales growth, capital investment growth, and benefit to our current customers.

Diana Niles (VP in Equity Research Product Management)

Great. Thank you. And then on the Smokehouse Creek, I saw the low-end estimate rose about the same amount as the finalized settlement agreements. So those estimated losses to the low end stay around $50 million. I'm just wondering how many lawsuits that $50 million might represent and sort of how sticky finalizing those might be.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Maybe I'll take a step back and try and answer that question. I think we've made really good progress. If you look at just the number of claims we've settled, we have over 320 claims settled and about roughly 420 claims and lawsuits in total. So we've settled a significant number, only about 90, about 100 outstanding. And I think you look at, and I've talked about it before, is we've settled some of the largest claims. We settled the three largest claims by acreage, which were high-value ranches. We settled with our subrogation insurers. So when I think about it, we've made considerable progress from this time last year to today. This time last year, we just had over 100 settlements, and now we have three times the amount. So we'll continue to evaluate it.

We expect to get some additional claims in as we near the two-year deadline, and then we'll evaluate it like we do every quarter. We continue to make really good progress on the overall claims. Again, it's a low-end estimate, but we feel good when we think about we have $380 million of that. $430 million is already settled. So it's really our low-end estimates focused on that $50 million relative to about $120 million of insurance proceeds left when you look at our coverage amount.

Diana Niles (VP in Equity Research Product Management)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport from Goldman Sachs. Your line is live.

Carly Davenport (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. Maybe just to start on the partnership with NextEra, could you talk a little bit more about the roles that each of you will play in developing these data center projects? And maybe if there are any time-to-market advantages, given that is still the top priority for data center customers.

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, hey, Carly. It's Bob. Thanks for the question. The last time we got together, maybe it was in the third quarter last year sometime, we talked a lot about executing on a capital backlog plan, executing on a data center large load plans for the company, and really finding the mechanisms that allowed us to execute in totality across the company. I think what you heard from the team today was execution across all three of those areas. With regards to NextEra in particular, you used a word that I use a lot here, which is speed. We do think there'll be increased clock speed as we think through combining to the best sales team, to the best development teams, to the best analytical teams in the country to deliver solutions for a very sophisticated customer set.

We also think that it brings scale and the ability to put an inflection point in the curve of data center delivery and signed ESAs and contracts and ultimately investment opportunities in all three of our big regions. When I think about roles and role clarity, we're still at MOU stage, although I tell you a lot of the terms and conditions have been really agreed upon by the organizations. We've got to get to sort of final joint development agreement type framework, which I think will get to quickly. I think about us having a great backlog and visibility in conversations with hyperscalers and data center developers. We know NextEra has a national platform of this as well.

Bringing those two together and being able to sit in a room and compare notes of who we're talking to, where's the best place to do this as it pertains to our regulated footprint? Then where do we have generation that we can bring to the table that we need to bring to the table with speed, with certainty, with price transparency, and with competitiveness? I think that's what the teams are going to bring together collectively. It's not an exclusive arrangement, but we expect to do a lot of work through this agreement, and it's not fuel-type limited. If you think about where we sit in sustainability goals as a company, where these hyperscalers and data centers and customers of data center developers want to be, it's a highly sustainable product. No one's delivered more wind or solar or storage development across the country than NextEra.

We've been 20-year partners with them. We signed our first PPA with them in 2006, our first PSA for a development transfer a decade ago. This is a great working relationship. All we're doing, I think, here is codifying it for the purposes of speed and execution certainty.

Carly Davenport (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

That's super helpful. Thanks, Bob. And then maybe just the follow-up. Just, there are a number of elections across your states this year. Any early views in particular on Minnesota and Colorado where you have ongoing rate cases and just sort of the role that you'd expect affordability to play in the respective campaigns?

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, great question. Something we pay a ton of attention to. And if you saw or heard my prepared remarks, I spent a lot of time talking about where I think we sit as a company in terms of affordability. Colorado, number one, lowest energy bills, electric and gas in the country. I think that's a great starting spot. We needed to file both electric and gas cases there. We've invested substantially into that state over the last 2 or 3 years. We haven't filed a case. We did file a case at the end of last year, and I'll go through prosecution through the course of this year. The election, it's probably early to tell. There's a lot of great candidates in Colorado for the governor.

Two big names on the Democratic side, one big name on the Republican side of the ticket, and probably early innings for us to see how that's going to play out in November. Certainly, energy and energy goals for the state have been very critical. We know that one of the things the state legislature is going to look at is 2040 legislation for some clean energy standard that's been a Governor Polis's priority for a long time. So we know that clean energy is going to be on the table. We're a huge leader here and in Colorado, and I think we got a great seat at the table when it comes to energy policy in that election. In Minnesota, obviously, Senator Klobuchar just put her hat in the ring for the governor's election. There's a crowded field of folks on the Republican side as well.

So probably early innings to tell what might happen there. We've got a rate case here in Minnesota that we've been prosecuting for about a year. We expect decisions here by, call it, mid-year this year and potential to settle between now and then. So I'm not certain how much the gubernatorial cycle will affect the outcomes of the cases that we have in front of us in Minnesota.

Carly Davenport (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

That's great.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

And Carly, just a couple of things to add. I mean, we echo all Bob's points on affordability, and we have a great affordability story while we're driving state energy policy in those two states. And so we're really aligned both on state energy policy and the affordability narrative. And then if you looked at our Colorado electric rate case filing, we put forth an enhanced affordability proposal, really getting at our customers that do have a higher energy burden in it. And we proposed something for customers that were at a 5%-6% energy burden down to 2.5% in a combined electric and gas bill. So really looking at where can we address the affordability issues. So we're pretty excited about where we sit from an affordability story, our narrative, but also looking to address it in the pockets where we can.

Carly Davenport (VP and Equity Research Analyst)

Really helpful. Thank you both.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Steven from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Steven Lewis (SVP and Financial Advisor)

Hey, Bob. Hey, Brian. Thanks very much for taking my question. Good morning.

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Morning, Steve.

Diana Niles (VP in Equity Research Product Management)

Good morning, Bob. I just had a quick one about effectively the data center pipeline update. I think on third quarter, when you rolled out your formal financial plan, you had talked about roughly 3 gigawatts between the two buckets of contracted and high probability and that those two buckets would drive 3% of the 5% total sales growth. And so can you just give me a little color about now that that combined bucket looks like it's doubling to almost 6 gigawatts? What does that mean for your sales growth? And then kind of the intended question would just be, as we get clarity on some of the high probability pipeline, when do we see updated IRPs that reflect some of this load, incremental load growth, and just how does that filter down into capital ultimately? Thanks.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Hey, Steve. Thanks for the question. Absolutely right in terms of everything we said on the Q3 call, 3 gigawatts of data centers in our high probability bucket. We also said on the Q3 call that we would execute on 2 gigawatts by this time. And we did execute on 2 gigawatts by this time. Want to ensure that we're delivering on what we tell our investors because I think that's really important. We feel that we have clear conviction by essentially doubling our data center opportunity from 3 gigawatts to 6 gigawatts. Excited about that. In terms of our sales forecasts, that 3 gigawatts translated to 3% of the 5% growth. We'll provide a holistic update in Q3 like we normally do when we roll forward our 5-year sales forecast plan, but certainly an opportunity.

Although I do think if you look at the timing and when you'd execute an ESA, if we say through the end of 2027 and kind of think about that cycle, you might see a lot of these coming in maybe that 2029-2030 as they energize and then ramp up into the 2030s. So I think really the opportunity is how do we think about extending our growth beyond 2030? So some potential sales impact within this five years, but really it's post-2030 as we think about these, particularly with the call it the very large data centers, the 1 GW+ where they ramp up over time. And then you would see there's really two ways they could come in through our you asked if they come in through the resource planning process.

Certainly could come in through the resource planning process, but I think more often you'll see them come packaged with an ESA in terms of we're going to bring forward a specific data center, and here's the package of resources that we'll serve it with. Because then that can really demonstrate to our commission that we're driving customer benefit for all of our current customers when we're looking at how we're going to serve those data centers. So I think that actually gives us more flexibility than kind of your standard resource planning process that can take a significant amount of time if you just go through that.

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, Steve, to add on to what Brian said is, look, we're going to expect some modest sales this decade. We'll have to update our plan accordingly. We'd expect to start investing probably capital to build the generations to serve those sales in the later part of this decade as well. We'll update our capital plan accordingly in the third quarter. And I'd just say give us a little bit of time with the NextEra partnership to figure out how fast we can get our feet underneath us, how fast we can run, and how fast we can bring this stuff to the table. So give us a little bit of time, and we'll keep this group informed as we go through the year and certainly a full-on update in the third quarter.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. And I think about it, we have that $10+ billion pipeline slide. When you look at our current base capital plan in terms of we have very strong growth and investing for our customers in the front three years, but then it's how do we fill in and strengthen that pipeline in years 2029 and 2030 and beyond? So that's a really good way to think about it, deepening our pipeline of opportunities and extending that pipeline of opportunities post-2030.

Steven Lewis (SVP and Financial Advisor)

Great. That's super helpful. And then just one other one quickly. You had mentioned that maybe the Colorado near-term RFPs were going to get bifurcated or tranched out, I guess. And so can you just talk about, I think it was the proposal was 2.1 GW company-owned across a portfolio of 4.9 GW. And so what does that look like in this tranching out and what's the timeline around some of these tranche updates, I guess? Thanks.

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. And the commission is working through the deliberation. So kind of what at least as we understand it sitting here today, they approved about one gigawatt of projects, including our gas plant in the last set of deliberations. And then they asked for some additional analysis over the next call of one or two months that we're working on expeditiously. And so they're going to look at a new portfolio, which could potentially include up to one gigawatt of our company-owned solar plus storage in that next tranche. And then potentially at tranche three, the timing is unclear, but likely in the first half. So we'll work with our stakeholders. Obviously, we brought forward this near-term procurement with a number of our key stakeholders in the state to really drive projects, ensure they come online before the tax credits expire.

So we'll continue to work with the stakeholders about the importance of that from a customer affordability perspective. But if anything doesn't get picked up in the near-term procurement, it just shifts to an overall resource plan, the Just Transition Plan that is in flight. So this is a subset of what we expect to execute in the resource plan, which will be followed on RFPs later this year.

Steven Lewis (SVP and Financial Advisor)

Understood. Thanks very much for the time, guys. Great update. Appreciate it.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Barclays. Your line is live.

Nicholas Campanella (Analyst)

Can you guys hear me?

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Hey, Nick. We can hear you.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Hello?

Nicholas Campanella (Analyst)

Hey, hey. How's everything? I'm really sorry I jumped on late from another call, but I just wanted to kind of clarify. The 6 GW now is pressure higher on the 5% long-term low growth factor. Is that correct? Apologies if I'm repeating.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Yeah.

Nicholas Campanella (Analyst)

Okay. Thank you very much.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, I think, Nick.

Nicholas Campanella (Analyst)

Thank you.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Nick, that's correct. And we really think about it in terms of like we said, we doubled our data center expectations here from 3 to 6 when you peel back from Q3. Obviously, I have clear conviction because what we put on our slides, we expect to execute on. And so that does provide sales growth opportunity in that what I would expect more in the 2029-2030 timeline when you look at kind of the schedule and what it takes from an execute an ESA to the energization. So the way we look at that is really later in this sales forecast, but really prolonged into 2030 when you think about the ramp schedules on some of these very large data centers, multiple-year ramp schedules, which means a multiple-year generation buildup for us as we think about it.

So deepening the opportunity late in this five-year and extending our opportunity into the 2030s.

Nicholas Campanella (Analyst)

All right. That's great. That's great. I'm sorry if I made you repeat yourself. And then maybe just when we kind of look at the earned returns just for 2025 actuals, they are pretty significantly under-authorized. So can you just kind of talk a little bit about just the past due authorized and what's embedded in the plan? I'm specifically kind of thinking about Colorado as well as SPS and where you kind of see your earned ROEs trending as you get to the on the other side of these rate cases. Thanks.

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Yeah. Thanks, Nick. I think SPS is clear. We had pretty challenging weather in the Q4 and SPS and a couple other unique items in 2025. So I expect that to get back closer to where it's been the last few years as we get right or recovery. And we have a New Mexico rate case in flight that we filed last year. Colorado specifically, yeah, significant under-earnings. But I think maybe refresh from that perspective, we really wanted to get through the Marshall trial and get a constructive settlement with that respect. And we did. If you didn't catch the opening remarks, we only have three known plaintiffs left to settle out of 4,000 plaintiffs. So we feel really good about where we are with that. We filed the Colorado Electric and the Colorado Gas case here late last year.

From an ROE improvement perspective, those cases play out and we expect a decision in revenue late Q3 of this year. Some revenue in the door this year, but you see the full impact and annualization of those rate cases in 2027. I expect significant ROE improvement from where we landed in 2025 in Colorado in 2027 as we think about those rate cases.

Nicholas Campanella (Analyst)

And then the last one, if I could, and I appreciate all those answers, Brian, just maybe clarify what's kind of embedded in the low end of this $10 billion+ incremental bucket. It just seems like there's potential for this to be well above that figure. So is there any way that you could kind of bookend that if we're thinking about at minimum what could kind of be coming into the next full-year update when you typically do your refresh in the third quarter?

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Maybe I'll walk through a couple of the markers that we're watching, Nick, to help you think about how we're going to roll forward this year into Q3. If I think through the significant RFPs that we have outstanding, we talked about the Colorado near-term plan, which the commission's looking at approving in tranches. But we should have visibility on that as we work through the next several months. The SPS RFP for 1,500-3,000 megawatts of nameplate capacity, we already received the bids, and we're working through the analysis of those bids. And the independent monitor will make a filing in Q2, so we'll have visibility on that opportunity. And then the significant opportunity in Minnesota with 4,100 megawatts of renewables, all in service by 2030 to really capture the tax benefits for the benefit of our customer. And so that's likely a filing later this year.

So you'll have visibility, but certainly not regulatory approval on that. But that's a really important filing as we think about accelerating projects for our benefits of our customers in the Midwest. So that's kind of the generation side on the current outstanding RFPs. We just earlier this week received approval of a 765 kV transmission line in SPS, set $1.5 billion for a 765 line. So clearly, we'll roll that into our plan. That's COD by the end of 2030, all within our five-year plan. And then we think about all the data center upside we have as we look at bringing on potential data centers and the generation that would come with that. So there's a reason why we put a plus next to that $10 billion.

We feel really good about these opportunities, and we think about filling in our 2029 and 2030 investment pipeline and then extending it into 2030 beyond that. So I don't think there's a high-end number to put that beyond. We feel really good about these opportunities and the partnership that we talked about with GE Vernova, the data center joint development agreement that we're working on with NextEra, just kind of strengthens that pipeline. And also when we think about these data centers, it's really about driving benefit for our current customers too, really important as we think about when we bring forward some of these data center opportunities.

Nicholas Campanella (Analyst)

Thank you very much. Appreciate you taking these questions.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller from Morningstar. Your line is live.

Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst , Energy and Utilities Strategist)

Good morning, everyone. Thank you.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Morning, Travis.

Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst , Energy and Utilities Strategist)

I wonder if you could quickly go over what's the regulatory process for some of these ESAs that either you're signing now or that you're negotiating in the Upper Midwest? I understand the Colorado situation, but what about in the Upper Midwest?

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. So we announced an additional data center deal just on this call as Bob spoke about in his remarks. There'll be a regulatory filing in Upper Midwest associated with that and then commission approval associated with that. It's still confidential, so we can't speak much about it. But we look forward to bringing those details, and there'll just be a regulatory approval really important in terms of showing overall benefit. And so think about that. If we have a large load tariff filing in place, we'll align with that large load tariff filing, and that should help from a regulatory approval process. So that's the best way to think about it. Get the large load tariff filings in place and then move forward with specific ESAs that align with that.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

And Travis, those tariffs are in process in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, Texas. And I may miss a state in there, but our goal is to get large load tariffs and then sign contracts underneath those tariffs that resemble those. And that should be the sort of regular path for data center contracting.

Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst , Energy and Utilities Strategist)

Okay. Can those data centers come online before those large load tariffs or not? It's just underestimated in the timing here.

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yes. We would align. And I think it's helpful to understand. We have one data center that's already energized. We have three data centers that are energizing in 2026. And we just make sure we align those ESAs with the large load tariff principles. So yes, they can. It's just important. And we've been very clear not only with our stakeholders, but with investors about the importance of those principles and how we manage both benefit for our current customers and manage risk to our customers and the company for these large loads.

Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst , Energy and Utilities Strategist)

Okay. Got it. Thanks. And then higher level, obviously hearing a lot around the country, etc., about bringing your own generation. What does that look like in your area? Are you seeing data centers bringing their own generation, making proposals? And then if you're seeing that, or even if you anticipate seeing that, what does that mean for your system and reliability? How does that all work together?

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Hey, Travis, it's Bob. I think the bring your own gen is maybe a mnemonic construct that is sort of if you're we don't want you to take existing supply out of the stack. It doesn't necessarily mean that data centers are going to show up with their own generation per se. We think that as you look across the country and the sort of different regulatory frameworks that are out there, we think data centers, by and large, and our conversations with them have affirmed this, that they don't really want to own and operate their own generation. They'd rather have someone own and operate for them. In a deregulated market, that meaning working with a developer to build that generation, sleeve it through a regulated utility, and sell it to the customer, that seems a normal path for a deregulated market.

For our markets, it would be we want to bring incremental generation to our networks to support these new large loads. And in doing so, when you bring that generation, you price protect your existing customer base from any incremental costs that may come from that new generation. And then the shared benefit comes from taking this big fixed asset, we'll call it the grid, and spreading that across more units of production. And that's where all customers will benefit by bringing large loads in. And if you can protect them from the price side of new generation, which we think we have the capability of in all of our states, I think that's how I think about bringing your own generation across the country.

There will be some developers that will build their own generation over time, but we think that's a pretty small set of data center developers and hyperscalers.

Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst , Energy and Utilities Strategist)

Okay. That makes sense. And then one real quick one. The Colorado, if you get that large load tariff in place, is that upside to the 6 GW that you had mentioned that you could see more projects or more interest come in once you got that or that embedded in the 6 GW?

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

When we think that we have not specified where those, well, we have 2 GW under contract. We have not specified those remaining 4 where they will come from. We have significant interest across all of our service territories and operating companies. I think we're most focused in the Upper Midwest in the near term as we move forward, but interest across all operating companies. And I think we put that 6 GW up there, but that's through 2027. You don't stop there. You continue to look at how can we drive overall data center development beyond that. So I would think we'll continue to provide updates on that, but we haven't given anyone the specificity. We have a large pipeline across all of our territories.

Travis Miller (Senior Equity Analyst , Energy and Utilities Strategist)

Sure. Okay. Got it. Thanks a lot.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Your line is live.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Hey. Good morning.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Morning, Bob.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Just wanted to—just had one question left on these PSPSs, these power shutoffs, and sort of some of the news that's come out about them from the fire districts and from these lawmakers. Could you elaborate a little bit? I know you guys are working hard on this issue, and obviously, it's a safety issue that you guys are focused on. Any thoughts on this that we've been seeing a bit of stuff coming out of Colorado on this?

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Hey, Paul. It's Bob. Look, let me start with we are absolutely 100% committed to protecting the communities and our customers from the risk of volatile weather and wildfires. We absolutely don't take lightly the need to potentially turn the power off in selected locations for short periods of time to protect them. We have spent an enormous amount of time, energy, effort, and investment in making our system harder, making our operational intelligence better, and minimizing the scope and the impact and the number of these items. We expect that to continue as we go forward in time. We continue to operate under a wildfire mitigation plan in Colorado and a system reliability plan in Texas that's going to help us continue to further segment our system, continue to build out the operational intelligence, and the ability to continue to minimize the impact of these occurrences.

I will share with you, though, that the December outcome in Colorado was some high winds and a potentially dangerous situation in Colorado. So we stand by our decision. We took the right action. And all we're trying to do is minimize the impact on our vulnerable customers when we have to do that. And so we're working on a battery pilot for our durable medical good customers. We are increasing our collaboration and partnership with our local partners. And we had enormous amounts of support from the broad community, the OEMs, the counties, everybody in the fire districts. So we feel good. It's not our preferred choice of action, but we are absolutely going to protect our customers, our communities, from the risk that we cause a catastrophic wildfire.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Absolutely. No. I guess my question is sort of like I guess what I'm a little bit surprised by is sort of some of this reaction. Is it a communication issue, do you think? I mean, I just in terms of I mean, obviously, you guys are not taking this lightly. So I just in terms of you're doing it to protect people. So I guess what I'm a little surprised by is this sort of this pushback or at least the coverage of it, do you follow what I'm saying of is this an issue of communication, do you think, that people don't really understand? I apologize. That's what my question is.

Bob Frenzel (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Our year-over-year performance between 2024 and 2025 was a remarkable improvement in terms of our coordination, our early warning, and our performance and our restoration times. Certainly, room for improvement. We work hard on communication. We work hard on outage maps. We're investing in technology to do that. It's all part of our roadmap. I think one of the challenging things for people just to understand is sometimes you may be in the circuit that gets turned off proactively. Sometimes because of the weather, you might be in a circuit that gets knocked down that we didn't proactively turn off. So some people are on. Some people are off. They don't know why they're on, and they don't know why they're off.

So we're trying to work through sort of real information sharing with our customers to make sure that we give them the best recovery times and the best reasons for why they may be out in a certain situation. Again, trying to minimize all of those as they happen.

Paul Patterson (Analyst)

Okay. Great. Awesome. Thanks so much.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

There are no further questions. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to CFO Brian Van Abel for closing remarks.

Brian Van Abel (EVP and CFO)

Thank you all for participating in our earnings call this morning. Please contact our investor relations team with any follow-up questions.

Operator (participant)

That concludes today's meeting. You may disconnect.